After about three years of holding his seat in office, California Governor Gavin Newsom and his decisions for the greater good of California are being actively questioned via a democratic recall. Gavin Newsom’s possible recall is a controversial topic that could have lasting consequences to futures other than Newsom’s.

Despite the majority of the state being blue, the recall ballot finds itself to be dominated by republicans vying for the position. If Newsom were to be recalled out of office, which candidate is most likely to take his place? 

In order for Newsom to preserve his seat, he would need at most 49% of his voters to keep him in office, while the upcoming governor would need to receive at least 15% of votes. Basically saying that whoever else is running for this position can successfully win over just 15% of voters, and in that case, however many votes Newsom receives is a moot point, because he would still lose his office. 

Larry Elder, 69-year old conservative has shown to be one of the leading contenders. But, criticism  for his book comments and his own personal opinions have slowed his takeover of the race. 

Newsom is not the first in office to be tried for recall. There have been a total of 179 attempts to recall Californian governors along with a few successful ones. The latest successful recall was former State Senator Josh Newman for his move to increase California’s tax on gas, along with other controversies

However the most recent (and only) other governor to be recalled was former Governor Gray Davis. In 2003 Davis was similarly challenged with a recall because of his undertaking of rolling blackouts (a last-resort measure used by an electric utility company to avoid a total blackout of the power system) which left him unpopular with the state’s voters. 

All 179 recalls have their own reasons, and each voter will have their own reasoning for their decision this September.  Who is to say for certain whether or not Newsom will be leaving office?

We don’t know who will get elected (or if anyone will need to be), we don’t know what decisions or drastic changes the next governor can make. It’s a gamble up to the voters, and the most we can do to try and direct it in our favor is vote.